Article · Geopolitics · Lithuania
Ukrainian intelligence warns of sabotage in the Baltics. Lithuanian intelligence in March 2026: the threat of a direct attack is low
On 2026-10-23, TV3 reported that Ukrainian military intelligence warns of Russian hybrid measures in Europe, especially in the Baltic states: provocations, sabotage and false-flag operations. The article gives no evidence, no named official and no response from Lithuanian institutions. In its assessment published on 2026-03-06, Lithuanian intelligence wrote that the threat of a direct attack on Lithuania is low and that Russia's main military force is tied down in Ukraine. It treats sabotage, information and cyber operations as the real threat.
A warning about Russian actions in the Baltic states easily turns into a headline about an attack. Here we separate what Ukrainian intelligence claims, what Lithuanian intelligence wrote in its own assessment, and what none of it tells us.