Article · Geopolitics · Energy
Putin is looking for victory in winter, not at the front. What a week over Kyiv shows, and why it changes the arithmetic of Western support
From 25 to 29 September 2026 Kyiv was attacked every day. According to Ukraine's Air Force, Russia launched 170 Shahed-type drones, 76 of them jet-powered, on the night of 26-27 September, and 152 drones, 82 of them jet-powered, plus three missiles on the night of 28-29 September. The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that Putin, having gained almost nothing at the front since March, now expects victory from strikes over the winter and wants Ukraine to capitulate before spring 2027. That is an assessment, not a fact. What can be checked is what such a plan depends on: in Zelensky's words, Ukraine shoots down about 55 percent of jet-powered drones and more than 90 percent of conventional ones. A war measured in interceptors per night rather than kilometres judges Western support by a different yardstick: not how much, but when.
On 25 September 2026 in St Petersburg, Russian President Vladimir Putin said of Ukrainians: "They must feel these retaliatory strikes by Russia and understand that no provocative actions (...) will lead to the result they want." Fontanka reports, in its own words, that Putin linked this to Ukraine's armed forces having nothing to counter the new Geran drones with. (Fontanka, 2026-09-25)
From that day until 29 September, Kyiv was attacked every day. This piece is about what those strikes say about the phase of the war, and what that means for Western support.