Article · Geopolitics · Money and markets · Lithuania
Latvia elects its parliament on October 3. All three parties leading the SKDS poll promise to scrap or shrink Rail Baltica
Latvia elects its parliament on 3 October 2026, and early voting has been open since 28 September. In the SKDS poll the top three are United List (14.4 percent of all respondents), Sovereign Power/Young Latvians (9.4) and Latvia First (9.2). According to an LSM overview of the manifestos, the first promises to cut Rail Baltica's scope to a minimum and the other two want to drop the project. A second pollster, Latvijas Fakti, puts the second-placed party only sixth, on 5.9 percent (single source, Puaro.lv). Lithuania has 114 kilometres of the line under construction, Latvia has preparatory work on a 30-kilometre section, and on 22 September the Baltic prime ministers moved the first-phase deadline from 2030 to 2034. Who will govern Latvia we do not know: SKDS finds 18.7 percent still undecided.
All three parties that the SKDS poll puts at the front of Latvia's election promise either to drop Rail Baltica or to shrink it to a minimum, while Lithuania already has 114 kilometres of the line under construction.
Latvia elects its 100-seat parliament, the Saeima, on 3 October 2026. Polling stations are open from 8:00 to 20:00 that day, and early voting runs from 28 September to 2 October. (CVK) Fourteen parties are standing, and only those with at least 5 percent of the vote get seats. (LSM, 2026-08-31)
This piece is not about who will win. Nobody knows that. It is about one question on which Latvia's election touches Lithuania's money and railway directly.