Article · Geopolitics · Lithuania
Danish intelligence: the risk of a limited Russian attack on a NATO country on its border is "low but growing". What the three-page document says, and what it doesn't
On 24 September 2026, Denmark's Defence Intelligence Service (FE) said there is a low but growing risk that Russia will carry out a limited military attack on one or more NATO countries bordering Russia, possibly within the coming months. FE rates an invasion as unlikely, which on its own scale means under 10 percent, but does not rule it out. The document names no country; Lithuania borders Russia through the Kaliningrad region. The main condition FE names is whether Russia believes NATO would fail to respond together, especially if the US could not or would not help.
On 24 September 2026, Denmark's Defence Intelligence Service (Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste, FE) published a three-page unclassified assessment, "Vurdering af truslen fra Rusland". Its main news is not about invasion. It is about something smaller and faster, and that is the part that matters most for Lithuania. (FE, 2026-09-24)